Queue for covid-19 vaccine. Who will first get the shot?

A big shoutout to Pfizer, Moderna and Astra-Oxford for their contribution in making ‘covid19 vaccines’ a reality in the shortest possible time. With claims of 90% effectiveness, now there arises the question of prioritizing the layers of distribution of doses.

The world is in a turmoil due to the tentacles of covid-19 and hence the arrival of the vaccines is a blessing for all of us. In the initial phase, the vaccines will be of limited supply, hence the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)has laid down protocols or guidelines to distribute the first doses of the vaccines. The protocol has been made keeping in mind the following points:

• People with highest risk of Covid-19
• People who are critical to keeping others protected and healthy
• Justice to everyone irrespective of their socio-economic situation
• People of certain racial and ethnic backgrounds who are more prone to the virus attack

The reasons for prioritization have been made transparent so that the public understands the data and evidence and not misunderstand the decision undertaken.

The layers of priority for vaccine distribution are :

• Healthcare workers who have the chances of direct or indirect exposure to patients and infectious materials
• Workers in critical and essential industries
• Adults with high-risk of covid-19 illness due to chronic health conditions like diabetes, cardiac issues, cancer, respiratory disease, asthma etc. irrespective of their age.
• Adults over 65 years of age

Doses and allocation —By the end of 2021, 5.3 bn doses will be able to cover more than one-third of the world’s population. Apart from the three, a vaccine from Moscow could cover another 500 mn people per year outside Russia from next year. Results are yet to be announced for 6 other vaccines like Novavax, Johnson & Johnson, Sanofi/GSK, CureVac, Sinovac and Sinopharm. If these 6 are included, the total number of doses will rise to 7.4 bn.

Canada leads with a pre-order of 9 doses of vaccines per person followed by USA, UK and Australia.

Source- Nature Journal

Local manufacturing dealers like that of Serum Institute of India in Pune, the world’s largest vaccine maker, has secured >2 bn doses of vaccines for India.

For low and middle -income countries, they depend on COVAX, a joint fund for equitable distribution of Covid19 vaccines based in Geneva, the WHO and CEPI. COVAX has secured 700 mn doses with a target of covering 20% of the population of 189 participating countries.

Last but not the least, patience is the key until we get vaccinated.

That’s all folks!

A Blessing in Disguise or a Curse of Nature - The new normal

A Chinese belonging since December 2019 gradually shifted to be declared a 'Public Health Emergency of International Concern' by WHO on January 30, 2020; also dutifully named as 'COVID-19' on February 11, 2020. The total numbers were not exceedingly inflated and the world became busy to flatten the curve to avoid getting the healthcare system overwhelmed.

It will not be wise to reiterate the above matter instead we are now all waiting to see light at the end of the tunnel and know how will be the 'Post-covid' time treat us.

 Hopeful perspective- Nature and family :

The onset of the virus has compelled us (most proclaimed social animals) to retreat from claiming our rights on Mother Earth and helping Nature in its cleansing process.

 

Increased rates of browsing the social media during the lockdown has opened our eyes to many breathtaking scenes occurring in our societies and neighborhood. 

• Wildlife spotted on streets roaming freely relieved from human intervention.
• Air and water pollution has diminished to a large extent.
• No cars, no smoke hence smog-free skies in cities

From an individual's view point, the lockdown was a much-needed break from the ultra-busy work life and an aid in balancing both family and profession. The wish of elderly parents who crave for the time of their children is now fulfilled. Working mothers are now investing more time on their kids and husbands and the reverse is also true. 

This 2XL- break was never a plan which was within our imagination. 

Finishing up with the nicer side of the lockdown implications, let us come to the harsh reality. 

• Hoarding of both essential and non-essential stuffs has been very common in supermarkets leading to the scarcity of groceries for the less privileged. This got normalized as days passed because most of the stores went for the 'purchase limit' policy for the buyers.

• Self-owned business setups got closed resulting in zero earnings. The tourism industry including airlines were badly hit. Millions of cases of unemployment sputtered throughout the world; many of them surfaced on account of media coverage or else failed to come to limelight.  

• Even the stock markets responded to the pandemic with worrying volatility with large troughs triggering market-wide circuit breakers. Trading came to a halt four times in March. Stock markets worldwide reported their largest single-week declines since the last financial crisis in 2008. 

We cannot allow any more negative thoughts to build a nest in our minds, because even the holy Bhagavad Gita says,

'Whatever happened, happened for the good.

Whatever is happening, is happening for the good.

Whatever will happen, will also happen for the good.'

Time has arrived when we no more write normal as normal, but within parenthesis. Does it sound scary or are we heading towards a more disciplined lifestyle?

The 'Khud ko pehchano' (know yourself) mode:

As mobile phones and hence social media are our most reliant companions in lockdown, it is obvious for us to know that #Normal and #newnormal are trending on Twitter, Instagram and other social media platforms.

Now coming straight to the point. 

How many of us got to know that we can go for a haircut at home too? 

How many of us have explored too many new recipes from YouTube and challenged the taste of restaurant food?

How many of us did not feel the absence of burgers, french fries, biriyani, 'Paani-puri', sev puri  and other junk food during the lockdown because of the presence of great Chefs at our homes?

New branded attires and expensive footwear are lying in our wardrobes, untouched for almost over three months. Ladies, our makeup and accessories are just decaying without usage. Have you noticed these?

Still, we are surviving without them.

Isn't it time to realise that we can live well with minimum materialistic pleasure and comfort?

Coronavirus is making mankind ponder over the fact that we can be happy even with doing our own stuffs without assistance of a domestic help.

For people who ran out of time when it came to rediscovering the actual person in each one of us, the lockdown turned out to be a blessing in disguise. Many of us are indulging ourselves joyfully in singing, painting, sketching, gardening, only to name a few. Challenging our friends on some activities through social media and drawing inspiration from them is sheer fun.  

Will the world witness a 'new normal'? If yes, how will it treat us?

For most of us, 'being caged' at our homes is boredom, we are desperately wishing for the lockdown to get terminated and get released from our cages.

Are we sounding outlandish? No.

It is quite obvious for the only species named Homo sapiens to feel imprisoned when it has been ruling the planet for ages. 

A fear of getting infected has got so deeply drilled within that we are now worried about the 'After Corona' effect. 

• Stepping out of the house needs a second thought. The one and only option to stay alert is that we have to assume that each and every person around us are asymptomatic carriers of the virus. According to researchers, we have to learn to live with the virus so 'physical distancing' and masking will continue to be two prominent practices. 

• Multiple bottles of hand sanitizers have being kept at homes to act as shields for all of us. Hand soaps are being used like never before. 

• Handshakes were a greeting gesture of the past. We have to be extra cautious when it comes to usage of public touch points.

• No more social gatherings, even wedding has to be completed with the presence of very less number of families and friends. Small hangouts with friends will be carried out with lots of ifs and buts.

• As very few samples of faeces of COVID patients contained the virus, will the usage of public rest rooms be a safer option?? 

• #Workfromhome has been a cornerstone of the 'new normal' conversations. In a way, it will save conveyance costs, fuel expenses and not allow the commuters to get freaked out in traffic. It will be good once we learn how to manage this process as this will be with us for a while. It looks like many workers will continue to work from home permanently.

• It will be a rather challenging time for travel bloggers, vloggers, business travel and hardcore travelers. By now, we have got used to conference calls and realized that all meetings do not require a physical presence. Business travel will be more mindful way of travelling which will benefit both the employers and employees.

• Assuming that the vaccine gets launched soon we get vaccinated. Imagine in case of international travel, each one of us has to show our COVID vaccination certificates along with passports and tickets. Another document will be added to our identities.

• Many restaurants will not be able to cope up with the 'takeaway' and delivery services on account of the extra charges to be incurred for delivery partners.

This is life and we have no other choice other than acceptance. 

Why don't we look at the new face of life as a new opportunity, a new discipline, a stricter principle?

 

Is it the immune system rush or the virus that is claiming lives?

Interesting enough. Right?

The world is waiting for the time when it will slip from the grasp of the coronavirus, popularly addressed as Covid-19. Beginning from Wuhan followed by large scale devastation in Asia, Europe and America, it has caused 184,280 deaths in total.

No this is not a joke. This is powerful enough to inject fear and insecurity within us.

Earlier, there was an observation that the elderly and people with underlying conditions formed the chunk of victims of the virus. But this idea got totally eliminated when youngsters also started falling prey. No one got to know the real scenario until the virus turned out to be indiscriminately affecting both young and old. In addition, it is also not revealing its plan of movement once it has invaded a human body. A section of people affected by the virus got sick to such an extent that the doctors lost hope in their survival. On the other hand, many others keep feeling better leading to the recovery.

The above level of unpredictability depends on how a human body handles the virus rather than the invading nature of the virus. This is an interesting point which deserves a thought.

Whenever it comes to drugs, antivirals work in the early stage of the infecton. It is the immune system which comes to the forefront in the later stages and threatens to kill us. This action can be improved.

Loss of taste and smell is one of the complications of COVID19 patients as young patients are complaining of sudden inability to taste. Is it that the virus as the potential to affect the olfactory nerve? Is it attacking the nerves which may cause long term impairment?

The virus has also reported to cause brain inflammation that leads to permanent damage. Once it enters the human body, it takes days to take full control of the host cells by tricking the immune system. Once the damage is realized by the immune system, the response is often harsh and not calculative which is when patients crash.

Among the many inflammatory markers which are predominant in critical COVID19 patients, D-dimer is the protein which is predictor of mortality. Doctors in Wuhan, China, have observed a 4-fold rise in D-dimer in highly critical patients thereby suggesting that a test could be an early marker of who is entering the dangerous phase.

D-dimer is one of the vital components of a hyperactive immune system known as ‘cytokine storm’. In this storm, the body gets overwhelmed with cytokines (a signaling molecule released by the body to activate immune system in order to eliminate a virus) sounding a fire alarm that continues to ring even after the firefighters and the ambulances have arrived.

Now, the focus will shift from treating the infection to tamp down the hyperactivity of the immune system so that it does not kill the person or cause a permanent damage. The challenge is to strike a balance where neither the cytokine storm nor the infection goes uncontrolled. Cytokine storm is common in dengue, influenza and Ebola cases.

Blocking the action of cytokines is one of the priorities right now, as suggested and debated by healthcare providers. Interleukin 6 (IL-6) is a cytokine which peaks up leading to respiratory failure and medications which blocks the IL-6 have to be developed. Researchers are working to find a solution on the same line and clinical trials are ongoing. Even if the researchers come up with interleukin inhibitors, there will be a shortage in supply of these drugs as they are used in rare cases by people with compromised immunity and are very expensive.

Relying on available corticosteroids is the last feasible way but this is a controversial opinion among the medical fraternity. As it have more side effects than being target-specific. A person on corticosteroids has an even higher chance of getting a secondary infection. This too have mixed results. Infectious Disease Society of America (IDSA) issued guidelines on the inclusion in a clinical trial in case of acute respiratory distress.

Keeping in mind the already overwhelming healthcare system and the immunity factor, maintaining a good health and best possible immune system must be written in bold and capital in our daily lives.

Our immune system is dependent on the kind of environmental interactions and the communities we were brought up; the genetics and the intake of food and air. Those who will be critically ill due to Covid-19 will be the ones who have a bad sleep. One night of a disturbed sleep leads to a rise in IL-6 level. Unfortunately, people who do not take a break from work when sick or are unhappy with their families or do not have proper food and clean air to breathe have higher probabilities to carry the burden of severe life-threatening disease.

In conclusion, our immune system need to be very strong.

Potential avenues of COVID19 drug research

Do you know how many proteins are possessed by COVID19? 

It’s 29 only when compared to a plethora of proteins contained in the very sophisticated species, Homo sapiens. Twenty nine proteins has the ability to conquer enough human cells leading to a catastrophic effect on the world. We cannot underestimate the power of the viral proteins.

Only way to bring an end to the viral activity either by — a drug or vaccine- is by blocking these proteins from hijacking, suppressing and evading the cellular machinery in humans. Unlike bacteria,these viruses have lesser number of weakness to be exploited. The fight is still ON. Several 100 drugs are under investigation to bring relief to the affected and on-the-verge-of-getting affected population.

Another set of clinical researchers are continuously working on the pathways taken by the proteins to interact with human cells. The target is to get a drug which will act on the host rather than the virus because the virus makes use of the host machinery by their tricks for their replication and multiplication.

To stop the viral activities from releasing orders to the human cells, the drug must have the potential to destroy the already affected human cells. This will open up many possibilities of drug targets in the host but it comes with a challenge too. It will be tough for the drug to differentiate between human cells and virus-hijacked cells. Now let us discuss the possible routes of attack which may unfold the mechanisms of action of a drug.

Prevent the virus from making an entry into the cell- 

The spike proteins on the viral membrane attaches themselves to the ACE2 receptors found in human cells. Plenty of them are found in the lungs and then in gastrointestinal tract. Lot of similarities in the spike proteins have been found in COVID19, SARS and MERS thereby making it advantageous for researchers to revise the strategies applied for SARS and MERS to combat COVID19. The Moderna vaccine is one such example. 

The spike proteins have also helped scientists to evaluate the probabilities of antibody therapy. Moreover, it is a non-Herculian task when compared to the development of a new drug as it deals with the power of the human immune system. (The immune system has the expertise of producing antibodies to act on foreign viral proteins). Based on this, many hospitals are trying to infuse antibody-rich plasma from COVID19 survivors to existing patients.

This is interesting to know that merely an attachment to ACE2 receptors will not allow the virus to enter human cells. Another step comprising the activation of the spike proteins comes into place. This happens when the human enzyme called furin comes along and triggers the activation process. Once the process is completed, it gains entry into the cell via endocytosis. Many candidate drugs, like hydroxychloroquine, are based on inhibition of the spike-activation process. 

Put a full-stop to the replication of the virus-

When the viral RNA is inside a human cell, it gives orders to the cell to produce more viral proteins to make more viruses. As the naked COVID19 genome resembles a RNA, the human cell cannot distinguish between the viral genome and human RNA so it is bound to obey the instructions given by viral RNA.

Replication, being a very complex process, offers numerous potential targets for drugs. An experimental candidate drug, Remdesivir, which is in clinical trial acts by targeting the viral protein that copies the RNA. Now there are proteases (other viral proteins) which helps to free off individual viral proteins from the strand and help the virus to replicate. In addition to the above proteins, the virus has mysterious ‘accessory proteins’ which are believed to allow the virus to evade the human cell’s natural antiviral defense-another potential target for a drug.

Prevent the immune system from going out of control-

Doctors have noticed that the critically ill COVID19 patients experience a cytokine storm in which the human body sparks a rush of antibodies to fight against the virus. Contrary to what is expected, this storm causes further damage to the lungs by fluid accumulation inside the tissues.

So another possible target is the immune system than the virus itself. As cytokine storms are very common in autoimmune disorders and bone marrow transplant cases, the drugs that treat the immune system rush are also under investigation for COVID19. Now this also needs to be balanced with clearing the virus from the body.

Much of the current research is into testing the existing drugs because these drugs will become more easily accessible at an early pace in hospitals. The pros of these drugs are that the side effects are already known and the companies are well equipped with the facilities. 

Most importantly, “We just need to make a beginning”.

Is COVID19 similar to seasonal flu?

Most of us possess the idea that COVID19 is a kind of seasonal flu. It is a misnomer!

The truth is that COVID19 is more dangerous than flu.

Why?

1. It is far more contagious.
2. It has a deadly impact on the elderly and people with co-morbidities.
3. It has the power to crush a fully developed healthcare system.

Some of the symptoms are similar to seasonal flu like sore throats, cough, body aches and chills.

For an easier understanding, let us look at the following illustration:

1. Basic reproduction number (R0) of a disease - Indicates how contagious a disease is.  For instance, R0 of measles is 12-18, i.e. one person has the capability to spread it to 12-18 people.

In case of flu, R0 is 1.3 which means 1 person can infect 1 person at a time. But R0 of COVID19 is 2.5. This implies that one infected person can infect a minimum of 2 people at a time.

This means that after 10 rounds, 1 Flu patient will generate 56 infected people WHILE 1 COVID19 patient will generate a total of 2047 infected people (almost 37-times the number of flu patients). 

2. Incubation period - From the moment one gets infected till the time he starts showing symptoms. In case of COVID19, it takes almost 5-14 days for a person to become symptomatic which is very less when it comes to an average of just 2 days in flu.  

These 5-14 days is believed to be contagious and an infected person has a possibility to infect others too. So till the person realizes that he is sick, he may have already spread the infection.

What about the rate of hospitalization and mortality rate?

Only 2-3% of flu patients requires hospitalization compared to 25-30% for COVID19.

Mortality rate of COVID19 is 10 times more than that of Flu.

 The immune system of humans have never seen the virus earlier hence lack the expertise to fight and win over the virus. This signifies that COVID19 is more contagious than flu.

A school of thought also predicts that the pandemic may turn into an endemic which will attack humans regularly until a drug or vaccine becomes available.

When are we going to see light at the end of the tunnel?

The most frequent question that is bubbling up to the surface of almost all human minds is, 'When will the pandemic end and we will see light at the end of the tunnel?'

This is indeed a tough question as it does not have ONE answer.

Various schools of thought are coming up which are quite puzzling.

The bottom line is that as long as the virus continues to exist, the probability of infection increases if an infected traveler reignite fire by travelling to a place which has just extinguished their fires. 

Three avenues of the end of the pandemic are possible-

1. First, the world manages to bring the COVID19 to its terms. If the widespread transmissibility of the virus and the traumatic situation of nations battling the virus are taken into consideration, then the chances of the worldwide control of the stealthy move of the virus are dim.

2. Second, the concept of 'Herd Immunity' comes to the forefront where we assume that the virus can leave behind survivors who will be immune to the second attack thereby making it difficult for the virus to find feasible hosts. But it would come at a very high cost as COVID19 is far more contagious and fatal than SARS which will devastate the healthcare system.

This is why UK dropped the idea of herd immunity.

3. Third scenario is stamping out outbreaks.In simple words, launching lockdown in places where there is a outbreak to cut off the spread until a vaccine comes to the limelight.

The vaccination countdown

Coronavirus is new to the human species hence making a corona vaccine is not a piece of cake. The world holds the expertise of making flu vaccines and is a yearly phenomenon.

Now what?

Surprisingly, a Cambridge biotech company, Moderna came up with a corona vaccine on a war-footing and also conducted clinical tests on humans along with NIH (National Institutes of Health). Even though the results of the First Trial will not conclude until later this spring.

This marked the shortest 63-days gap between the decoding of the viral gene and the process of injecting into a person making it the world record in the era of vaccine production.

How to keep the ball rolling?

1. The safety factor and its role in the mobilization of the immune system.

2. Next comes the efficacy and effectiveness of the vaccine in combating COVID19.

3. Undergo animal testing and large sampled trials to ensure that the vaccine does not have any serious side effects.

4. Thereafter to work out the therapeutic dose and the number of shots required for effectiveness.

5. Tests on whether it will work on the elderly with compromised immunity and co-morbitities.

Moderna's new approach to vaccine production -

The vaccine consists of a small part of the genetic material (RNA) of COVID19. The idea behind is that the human body will can use this part of RNA to produce its own viral fragments which will be used for the basis of the immune system preparation for the battle with the infection.

This is the first time that these kind of vaccines have been used in humans, hence still not proven. Also, a mass scale production is back-breaking task.

Some good news on the way...

Other notable biotech firms like CureVac, BioNtech and pharma giant Johnson & Johnson (J&J) are working on an accelerated pace to come up with vaccines. The novel technology revealed by CureVac and BioNtech are based on messenger RNA which allows the vaccine to remain stable without refrigeration.

The J&J story-

As per statement made by J&J, they are using the same technology it used to develop a vaccine candidate for Ebola. The vaccine will be ready for human trials by September. In order to choose the best vaccine candidate, they had several vaccine candidates being tested in animals since a span of 12 weeks starting January 15.

Technology- Combining a common cold virus incapable of replicating with parts of COVID19.

Challenge- The vaccine does not backfire and provide people a higher chance of getting the infection.

The French way-

French scientists are trying to make an alteration in the existing measles vaccine by parts of the coronavirus. The advantage is that in case there arises a requirement on a large scale, then there are a lot of facilities which knows the technicalities to fulfill the need.

The bottom line of all the stories taken together is that it will take not less than 12 - 18 months to get a Proven vaccine.  

The story does  not come to an end so fast.

Other side of the coin-

The seasonality and the duration of immunity of COVID19 will determine the frequency, duration and timing of a sudden change to a nation. The world is waiting to see what impact does the summers have on the transmission capacity of the new coronavirus.

Duration of immunity- Other human coronaviruses makes people immune for less than a year while people infected with more severe SARS continued with their immunity for several years. Let us assume that  COVID19 lies somewhere in the middle, the protection may continue for a couple of years.

In the meanwhile, the virus will continue to express its aggression and will not be eradicated completely. There might be the need to update the vaccine as and when the virus changes itself and tries to take the world on a ride for the second time. People need to be re-vaccinated on a regular basis as they do with the flu vaccine.

COVID19 may become like flu with a drastic decline in severity in the future.

Flattening the curve is the priority right now which is being done by physical and social distancing, lockdown measures across all nations.

What has the coronavirus done to mankind?

2019 ended well.

The world welcomed 2020 with a grand celebration. 

AND THEN THIS HAPPENED...

No one had the hint of the arrival of a virus that will doom the economies, distance us from our friends, challenge the healthcare systems and retreat us from the public spaces. Like the World Wars, this pandemic has badly shattered the human psyche.

This global epidemic was destined to happen as forecasted by Bill Gates in his TED talk in 2015 and also mentioned in the novel, 'The Eyes of Darkness' by Dean Koontz. In October, Johns Hopkins Center had the question, 'What if the world gets swept away by a new coronavirus?'.

Now the question has been converted from 'What if?' to 'Now what?'

A thought...
Just imagine the fact that babies born during this period will be born into a COVID19 dominated society. Their lives will be altered and determined by the choices made by their parents in the coming days.

The virus is more transmissible than influenza and clever enough to spread from host to host even before triggering symptoms...a stealthy move. The only way to stop this stealthy activity is 'test, test and test' like South Korea, Singapore and Hongkong. It is the call of a country to tackle the rapid spread of the virus to minimize the load on the hospitals. Execution of the pandemic plans will then become easier.

The case of America

The coming months will be very crucial. People who got infected several days back will start showing symptoms now even after they have isolated themselves in the meantime.

Already, Italy and Spain are providing warnings about the dim future. Exponential growth of Covid positive cases is speaking loud and clear of the severe rate of transmissibility of the virus (Read more at Transmission of coronavirus decoded by genomic technology). The U.S has fewer hospital beds per capita than Italy.

If this situation continues without total lockdown being imposed in the U.S, then for every available critical-care bed, there will be an approx. 15 COVID19 patients in need of one. This the worst scenario to happen to any country.

Action-steps to be undertaken at a quicker pace:

1. Priority is to protect the saviours by providing adequate personal protective equipment (PPEs), masks, gloves and also ventilators. In some hospitals, the stock is so low that the doctors and nurses are re-using the masks between patients. Some manufacturers have already risen to the challenge.

Strengthening the logistics and supply chain which calls for the active involvement of the Defense Logistics Agency. They are a team of almost 25,000 who prepares the U.S military for overseas operations and also assisted in public health crisis during the 2014 Ebola outbreak.

2. FDA is now giving accelerated approvals to the private labs for the test kits which generates results in an hour. All hospital workers need to be tested to prevent any chance of infection inside the hospital itself.

The above measures are time consuming during which the pandemic may follow any one of the following courses-
   - It may either accelerate beyond the healthcare capacity or
   - Slow down

Now the fate of the country depends on the third measure, Social Distancing.

GROUP-A

GROUP-B

In a particular country, the population is categorized as GROUP-A and GROUP-B.

GROUP-A comprises the team who is directly or indirectly helping in the medical response, like doctors, nurses, lab technicians, ward boys and medical supplies manufacturers.

GROUP-B includes everyone else.

Now, GROUP-B will have to help 'flatten the curve' by practicing social distancing to break the chains of transmission.

Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases had a straightforward message, "You don't make the timeline, the virus makes the timeline"

Allowing low-risk people to resume work and protecting the elderly and high-risk is a flawed idea. It basically underestimates the fact of how badly the virus can strike the low-risk group.

A recent analysis estimated that even if the social distancing measure has an impact of 95%, almost 950,000 Americans will still need intensive care support. Abandoning social distancing will be foolish but abandoning it now, when tests and PPE are scarce, would be catastrophic. 

The only step we can take is to lockdown ourselves in our respective homes and have a quality time with our families (for ideas read The phase of self quarantine- How to have a productive and quality time at home).

Let us all strive to make our Earth covid19-free.

Transmission path of COVID19 decoded by genomic technology

Before jumping directly into the transmission pathway of the notorious COVID19, let us know what is genomic epidemiology. This deals with the study of genetic sequences of pathogens to understand their path of transmission.

Process of spreading-

COVID19 is indeed a notorious one which mutates at an average of 2 mutations per month. When someone is exposed, they will incubate the virus  for 5-7 days approx. before becoming symptomatic.  So, we have 7 days from one infection to the next (shown below)

As the transmission happens, the virus will mutate twice in a month (shown below)

With the advancement in technology, it is feasible to sequence the genome of the novel coronavirus. This works by taking a swab from nose and extracting the RNA from the sample to determine the letters of this RNA genome. Each person's coronavirus infection will yield a sequence of 30,000 letters, 'A', 'G', 'C', or 'T'.

Considering the genomes, 'ATTT', 'ATCT' and 'GTCT' , it can be concluded that the infection with genome 'ATTT' lead to the infection with genome 'ATCT' which in turn gave rise to the infection with genome 'GTCT'.

An explanation of the transmission-

Let us consider that the first COVID positive case in US as WA1 (a traveller who has arrived from Wuhan in the US in mid-January)
Also from the Seattle Flu Study, a first positive was found from a sample from Snohomish County (Washington). Let us take this case as WA2.

Interesting features of WA2 case-

The second case in the US who had sought treatment for flu-like symptoms and was sent home on account of a mild disease.
The case was under diagnosis and was later confirmed to be positive.

Surprisingly, the WA2 genome was identical to the WA1 genome except the fact that it has three additional mutations.

Now comes the valid question of 'community transmission'...

Bingo!

WA2 genome is a direct descendant of WA1 genome.
The virus had circulated locally for 5 weeks.(i.e. WA1 arrival in Jan 15 and a second positive case, WA2 being diagnosed in Feb 28).

The Seattle Flu study has screened viruses from all over the Seattle area but the positive case was found in the Snohomish County with cases less than 15 miles apart. This is suggestive of 'continued transmission'.
The above scenario is explained well in the following flowchart-

There is the possibility of WA1 case infecting someone else to the virus in between Jan 15 and Jan 19. It would be difficult detecting the second case as it had mild symptoms or was asymptomatic thereby leading to community transmission.

An inference can be drawn that a person who tests positive may not necessarily have a travel history to and from China or may have come to direct contact with a positive case. This person may not be even taken for testing leading to an error and an outbreak in the Snohomish County before even it was detected.

Interventions to be followed individually-

1. Practice social distancing.
2. Work from home.
3. Avoid touching mouth, eyes and nose with unwashed hands.
4. Cover when you sneeze with your elbow or tissue.
5. Disinfect frequently touched surfaces like door knobs.

Last but not the least,
Do not panic. It gives unwanted stress and anxiety.


For more posts on Covid19, visit the following links-

• From where do new viruses originate?
• In layman's terms- Flatten the curve and raise the line
• COVID19- The scientific side

COVID19- The scientific side

This post is all about the data-based findings of well known medical journals explained in lucid words. The objective behind writing this is to enlighten the common man regarding the insights of the virus. 

Pioneering study in Cell Bioscience, published in March 16,2020 - This is a high quality study which made a major difference in medical policy setting. The study has set the stage for control & management of COVID19.

The Cell and Bioscience Journal- Biomedcentral

The highlights are:

• An attack rate of 83% within the family is alarmingly high, indicating the high transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 (also called COVID19). 
• The clinical manifestations of COVID-19 with more systematic symptoms are seen in older patients. 
• Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from asymptomatic carriers to others.
• The presentation of diarrhea shows the possibility for gastrointestinal involvement in SARS-CoV-2 infection and fecal–oral transmission.
• It is transmissible in tertiary and quaternary spreading in humans.
• The epidemic doubling time of COVID19 is about 6.4 days.
• Patients with mild and unspecific symptoms are also difficult to identify and quarantine because the absence of fever in COVID19 is more frequent (12%) than SARS and MERS. So, surveillance method by fever detection cannot be the only determining factor for a person to be COVID +ve.

Now the big question arises.

How it should be treated and what treatment options should be made available?

COVID19 is a self-limiting disease in 80% of patients. Severe pneumonia occurred in only 15% of population.
As of now, potential drugs which are proven to cure COVID19 are not available but an Ebola drug named Remdesivir may be promising. Severity of disease, viral replication, and lung damage were reduced in case of MERS which paves a way for the testing of the drug in COVID19.

Other antiviral agents which calls for further clinical investigation include ribavirin, lopinavir, ritonavir, interferons, chloroquine and Arbidol. However, the side effects of these drugs cannot be ignored. Type 1 interferons are beneficial at an early stage of infection but administratoj at a later stage carries a risk of worsening the cytokine storm (an overproduction of immune cells in the lungs) and increase inflamation.
In case of steroids, the window in which steroids might be beneficial to COVID19 patients is very narrow. Steroids can only be used when Covid19 has already been eliminated by immune response. Otherwise, Covid19 replication will be boosted leading to an increased risk of nosocomial transmission and secondary infection (for example, fungal infection in some Wuhan patients). 

Are inactivated vaccines a viable option?
Inactivated vaccines are vaccines consisting of virus particles, bacteria or other pathogens that have been grown in culture and then lose disease producing capacity.

The chance that COVID19 will become endemic in some areas (a disease which is maintained at a baseline level in an area without external inputs) or even pandemic has increased in view of its high transmissibility, asymptomatic, high number of patients with mild symptoms. This calls for the development of vaccines. 

Inactivated vaccines are one major type of conventional vaccines that can be easily produced and quickly developed but there are concerns of antibody-dependent enhancement of viral infection and safety issues.

More updates will be posted until next development.

Till then, #Stayathome, #Staysafe and help the world #Flattenthecovidcurve

In Layman's terms- 'Flatten the curve and raise the line'

Nowadays, whenever the term 'coronavirus' is typed in a search engine box, 'Flatten the curve' is generated. 

Do you agree?

The only solution to prevent the spread of the notorious COVID19 is appearing in bold and capital urging each one of us to participate actively to accelerate the fight against the virus. Not only search engines, even social media like Twitter, Facebook are full with graphical representations explaining the following facts,

1. What is meant by flattening the curve? 

2. How to flatten the curve?

3. Raise the line of hospital capacity and what are the measures to be taken.

What is meant by 'Flatten the curve'?

Known as the best currently available strategy to curb the spread of COVID19 infection. It depicts the containment needs of the virus.

The pandemic curve is used to visualize when and at what pace the new infected cases are recorded in the world. 

Understanding the curve -

X-axis : The height of the curve represents the potential infected cases (will vary country-wise)

Y-axis : The time duration.

The line cutting across the middle shows the healthcare system capacity (will vary country-wise).

A rapid spread of COVID-19 will lead to a spike of the new cases hence an exponential growth of the curve will be observed.

Healthcare system capacity - The faster the infection curve rises, the faster the healthcare system will be overloaded beyond its capacity to treat people thereby raising a serious concern. ICU beds are limited everywhere hence an overload of cases will force the patients to go without the facility. Emergency rooms (ERs) in hospitals already operate close to capacity, without coronavirus cases. Adding a sharp spike in the cases will add on to the difficulty in proper patient management.

Flatten the curve means to minimize the surge of the new cases and making it easier and possible for the healthcare to manage and treat patients.

Help the world flatten the curve. 

A flatter curve signifies the following factors :

• Same number is getting infected but for a longer duration. 
• Slower infection rate and less stress on the healthcare system.

What are the interventions undertaken worldwide?

As vaccines are yet to come in another 18 months and proven medicines are not available, containment measures becomes a mandate. These include social distancing, self-quarantine, community lockdown, stop attending social gatherings, work from home, online classes for children and stay at home. Avoid partying around, swimming pools, gyms, malls,  and restaurants.

On an individual level, washing hands for 20 seconds with soap and water, sanitizing the external contact points regularly, going on a self-quarantine for 14 days on arriving from abroad and other possible ways of keeping yourself isolated to reduce the speed of transmission have to be followed judiciously.

Now its time to raise the dotted line (save our bravehearts) -

Keep the coronavirus from infecting the healthcare workers who are the true bravehearts.
Remember, they are at the greatest risk of exposure. We do not want our countries to run out of doctors and nurses. They stand right behind us as the line of defense. How do we keep them seeing patients rather than becoming patients?

• Firstly, help them by staying at home.
• An adequate supply of full-body protective gear including goggles, complete head coverings, N95 particle-filtering masks or surgical masks and hazmat-style suits is a must.
• Mobilizing our industrial capacity to meet the needs of our healthcare workers like masks, ventilators, PPEs , CPAP oxygen tent for the patients and many more.

 This is really a critical pandemic which has totally put the world on a strike.

For the sake of humanity, we need to act vigilantly on both flattening the curve and raising the line.

Stay home. Stay safe. 

For other posts on the origin of new virus and how to spend a quality time at home during self-quarantine phase click on the following links:

From where do new viruses originate?
The phase of self-quarantine: How to face the stay home challenge?

COVID19- From where do new viruses originate?

The world is talking of the virus which is new to the human species, hence COVID19 does not need an introduction. It has become so prominent in our lives that post-dialing the numbers of our loved ones, COVID19 stands at the forefront of discussion. I am sure that you will agree to it!

Where do new viruses come from? Do you have an idea of 'Spillover infection'?

The term 'coronavirus' was coined keeping in mind, the crown-like protein spikes on the membranes of the virus. The spikes are selectively sticky but becomes more sticky when they bump onto specific molecules found on the outsides of animal cells.

The crown-shaped spike protein on the virus membrane 

Different animal species have different types of molecules on the outsides of their cells. Because of this, bird infecting coronavirus usually cannot infect humans.
Unfortunately, the natural process of 'Evolution' can help the virus overcome this problem.

When virus genes are being copied during reproduction, mutations can occur either by error or recombination and re-assortment. 

Mutation that changes the shape of the viral spikes renders the virus useless as their spikes do not stick to any host cells. On rare occasions, a mutation may happen to allow a virus to attach to a new host species. If that modified virus is lucky enough to encounter the new host, 'infection' can occur. This is called 'Spillover infection'. The virus has spilled over into a new host.

What happens next?

Inside the new host, if the virus can survive and reproduce long enough, natural selection will promote any new mutations that will help it better spread and reproduce.

Positive mutations will help accumulate over multiple generations, negative ones are discarded until...

BOOOOM! A new epidemic is on the news.

There is a long and slow burn before the explosion (Slowly evolving spillovers have been the cause of almost every major outbreaks in history).

Timeline and its origin:

SARS virus - In early 2000s, a coronavirus that used to infect only bats appears to have spilled over into civets. Further mutation happened and the modified virus spilled over into humans known as SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome).

MERS virus - A coronavirus (Middle East Respiratory Syndrome virus) from camels also spilled over into humans causing many deaths.

 COVID-19 might just be one more example of 'Normal Evolution'.

The entire world is now connected through international flights, you realize that What happens in Vegas does not actually stays in Vegas.

Comments are most welcome.

The phase of self-quarantine- How to have a productive and quality time at home?

Right now, 'COVID-19' is dictating movement of people across the globe that resulted in travel restrictions.

As a result, there will be a gap in my frequency for blogposts. 

Self-isolation at home is the sole solution.

The current phase well-defined by:

'There are decades where nothing happens and 

 There are weeks when decades happen' - Vladimir Lenin

In his 2015 TED talk, Microsoft magnate, Bill Gates underlined how the next big disaster to strike humanity would be due to microbes and not a nuclear war. The world would be under-prepared for the strike.

This is not negativity or a way to imbibe fear within us. Instead, let us take ample opportunities to spend time on our development and indulge in some productive activities.

Enough of COVID-19!

Now coming straight to the point of my post today.

How am I making a perfect utilization of the quarantine phase?

1. As the first step, for a while, I have stopped reading and watching news related to the pandemic which reduced my  panic hence less stress & anxiety. In addition, no discussion on COVID-19 is taking place in the family too.

2. I am spending an adequate time with my family (which otherwise was not possible in case of working men and women).

3. In the process of learning new recipes from YouTube; preparing the same; pampering the taste buds. Trying my best to get promoted to a 'Better' chef than what I was yesterday.

4. Painting and sketches- Being an ardent lover of painting & sketching, I have made sure to give 30 mins to my art paper. The papers were piled up in some corner, dusty and getting neglected. A rendezvous with my art paper was fixed during the quarantine period time.

Thanks to COVID-19!

Two of my paintings/sketches are given below for the first two days of quarantine:

5. Online courses - I have enrolled myself in two courses on www.udemy.com related to my passion and field of work to enhance my skills & knowledge. One of them is Google Analytics and the other being Time Management.

6. Read books - Do you have any books which are left aside unread? Or some unfinished reads?  Friends, this is the right time to finish the unfinished. Do not let your books lie on shelves, choose one and start reading. 

I am a hungry reader and have shortlisted books for this period.

Recommended books to read, in case you are interested,

• The Fifth Beatle - the Brian Epstein Story
• Atomic Habits by James Clear
• Sapiens by Yuval Noah Harari
• This Beautiful Life by Helen Schulman
• Guru Dutt by Arun Khopkar
• The Free World by David Bezmozgis
• Monsoon Feelings : A history of emotions in the rain 
• The Angel's Beauty Spots by K.R. Meera

7. If you are an avid writer, then pen down your thoughts in a diary. Make a list of things which you want to accomplish in your lifetime known as bucket list.

As a travel blogger, I keep visiting places and share my experience with the world through my blogs. 

8. Also a music lover, playing harmonica was one of my listed dreams. So why not this time? I am also learning how to play a harmonica.

8. Amidst all the mental de-stress procedures, now let us turn our heads towards our physical well being. Workout for at least 30 minutes in the form of zumba, cardio, jogging or free hand exercises. Choose whichever you like to lift up your morale.

9.  Last but not the least, sing, dance and play games.

For the time being, why not focus on being a better person than yesterday.

Why not think that God has given us a chance to self ponder?

Needless to say, stay at home and help the world to 'Flatten the COVID-19 Curve'.